نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه بیرجند

چکیده

اقلیم از مهمترین عوامل تعیین کننده توزیع جغرافیایی گونه‌های گیاهی از جمله زعفران می‌باشد. تنش‌های گرمایی از مهمترین عوامل کاهش دهنده عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی است. استان خراسان جنوبی به عنوان قطب تولید زعفران نیز از تنش‌های حرارتی برخوردار می‌باشد. در این پژوهش از داده‌های ایستگاههای سینوپتیک و کلیماتولوژی استان که دارای آمار معتبری بودند، استفاده شد، سپس اقدام به شناسایی رفتار تنش‌زای آسیب رسان به زعفران گردید. برای این منظور نخست آستانه‌های حداکثر دما به سه دسته تا حدی بحرانی (35 تا40 درجه)، بحرانی (40 تا 45 درجه) و فوق بحرانی (بیش از 45 درجه سانتی‌گراد) طبقه‌بندی گردید. در گام بعدی با نوشتن برنامه‌ای در محیط Matlab این روزها از پایگاه داده دمای بیشینه ایستگاه‌های منتخب استخراج گردید. با استفاده از صدک90 آستانه‌ی تعیین روزهای داغ در هر ایستگاه مشخص گردید. در ادامه در محیط GIS نقشه‌های پهنه بندی تنش گرمایی و حداکثر دما ترسیم شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که ماه‌های دوره گرم بالاترین روزهای بحرانی و فوق بحرانی را دارند و در اسفندماه نیز روزهای بحرانی افزایش یافته است. روند رخداد روزهای تنش‌زا در سال‌های اخیر افزایش یافته است که می‌تواند بر گل‌دهی زعفران و عملکرد محصول تأثیرگذار باشد. جنوب، غرب و مرکز استان بالاترین روزهای فوق بحرانی را داشته‌اند که تعداد این روزها در غرب تا 177 روز در تیرماه رسیده است. کاهش عملکرد محصول در سال­های اخیر در کانون‌های تنش‌زا، از جمله پیامدهای تنش‌های گرمایی در استان می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Adams, R.M., 2000. Climate variability and climate change: Implications for agriculture. IRI Proceedings. Oregon State University, U.S.A. Ainsworth, E.A., Ort, D.R., 2010. How do we improve crop production in a warming world? Plant Physiology 154, 526–530. Amirshekari, H., 2006. Effects of root temperature, the size of the bulbs and Gibberellin on Ground saffron, Journal of Biology, 19 (1):1. (in Persian). Azizbekova, N.S.H., Milyaeva, E.L., 1999. Saffron cultivation in Azerbaijan. In: Negbi, M. (Ed.), Saffron:Crocus sativus L. Harwood Academic Publishers, Australia, pp. 63–71. Bariabaghuyi, B., 2008. Check investigate climatic factors on flowering of saffron, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research thesis, p.49-63. (In Persian with English Summary). Behdani, M. A., Nassiri, M., Koocheki, A., 2004. Modeling saffron flowering time across a temperature gradient. Acta Horticulturae, 650, 215-218. (In Persian). Bolandi, M., 2009.Effect of temperature and storage time on outdoor activities, water color, aroma and bitterness of saffron, Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Science and Technology, 13. (47), 61-66.(in Persian). De Hertogh, A., 1985. Glossary in: Holland Bulb Forcer,s Guide, 3rd.edn. pp. 93-99. Hillegom: International Flower Bulb Centers, Netherlands. Edmar I. Teixeiraa, B, Fischera, J., 2011. Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 170, 206–215. FAO, 2010. FAO Cuts Wheat Production Forecast but Considers Supplies Adequate, http://www.fao.org/news/story/tr/item/44570/icode/en/ (accessed January 2011). Fekrat, H., Ehtesham, M., Dadkhah, M., 2003, Iranian saffron unknown gem (planting, harvesting, processing) ,Shahrashub press, Tehran. Fischer, G., van Velthuizen, H., Shah, M., Nachtergaele, F.O., 2002. Global agroecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: methodology and results. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Research report RR-02-02, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. Ghatre Samani, S., 2005. Meteorological applications in agriculture, the effect of low temperatures on agricultural products. Climatology Research Center, Internal Medicine Journal, Journal of Scientific and Technical appendix Nivar, Tehran. (in Persian). Ghorbani, R., Koocheki, A., 2006. Organic saffron in Iran: prospects challenges. Proceedings of the 9nd International Symposium on Saffron Biology and Technology. Mashhad, Iran. 9221, p. 912-932. (In Persian) Hay, R.K.M., Walker, A.J., 1989. An Introduction to the Physiology of Crop Yield. Longman Scientific & Technical, New York, p. 292. Hosseini , M., Molafilabi, A., Nassiri, M., 2008a. The impact of long term fluctuations of heat and rain on Crocus sativus revenue. Iran. J. Agric. Res. 1(2), 32-88. [In Persian with English summary]. Hosseini, M., Molafilabi, A., Nasiri, M., 2008b. The long-term effects of fluctuations in temperature and precipitation on the yield of saffron, Crop Research Journal, 6(1).1-14(in persian). Houghton J., Filho G., Callander A., Harris N., Kattenberg A., Maskell K., ,1996. Climate Change, the Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, p572. IPCC, 2007, Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC fourth assessment report. In: Solomon S, Qin D, and Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M. IPCC, 2007b, Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis. Kafi, M., 2002. Saffron, production and processing technology, Zaban and Adab, Mashad. Kamali, Q., 2005. Identification of high-risk areas of the central province of climate, Research projects Meteorological Organization and the Organization of Management and Planning. In persian). Karimi, M., Kamali, G.H. ., 2003. Heat wave of July 2003 and its effects on the performance of agricultural and horticultural crops country, Proceedings of the ways to reduce drought damage and drought.pp 209-218(in Persian) Koocheki, A., Nassiri, M., and G.A. Kamali. 2003. Weather condition of Iran under climate change. Project report. Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran. in persian). Koocheki, A., Nassiri, M., Kamali, G.A., and H. Shahandeh. 2006. Potential impacts of climate change on agro climatic indicators in Iran. Arid Land Research and Management. (20): 245-259. Koocheki. A., 2009. Evaluate the performance of saffron for drug crops. Journal of agricultural research in Iran. 7 (1): 157-175-. (In Persian with English Summary). Koozegaran, S., Moosavi, M., Sanayinejad, H., Behdani, M.A., 2011. Studying the minimum, average and maximum temperature degrees of south Khorasan in order to identify feasible cultivation areas of Crocus sativus by using GIS. J. Water Soil 92(2), 825-223. (In persian). Koocheki A., 1998. Ecological Impact of Climate Change, Press University Jahad, Mashhad.(in Persian). Menzel, A. 2000. Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996. International Journal of Biometeorology, 44,76–81. Menzel, A., Fabian, P., 1999. Growing season extended in Europe. Nature. 382, 146–149. Meteorology Organization of South Khorasan. 2015. Synoptic Station Data. Available at Web site http://skhmet.ir. Mobaraki, Z., 2005. Saffron cultivation located in the province of Qazvin, Master's thesis, Department of Geography, Tehran University. (In Persian). Mohamadi, H, 2007. Applied Climatology, Tehran University Press, Tehran. Mohammad-Abadi, A.A., Rezvani-Moghadam, P., Sabori, A., 2006. Effect of plant distance on flower yield and qualitative and quantitative characteristics of forage production of saffron in Mashhad conditions. Acta Hort. (392), 252-259. (In Persian). NOAA. (2010), Natural Hazard Statistics, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Raisanen J, Hansson U, Ullerstig A, Doscher R, Graham LP, Jones C, Meier HEM, Samuelsson P, Willen U. 2004. European climate in the late twenty-first century: Regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Climate Dynamics, 22, 13–31. Rosenzweig, C., Parry, M., 1994. Potential impacts of climate change on world food supply. Nature. 367: 133- 138. Reuther, W. 1973. Climate and citrus behavior, In: ed. Reuther, The Citrus Industry, 2nd edition, Berkeley, University of California Press, pp. 280-337 Slingo, J.M., Challinor, A.J., Hoskins, B.J., and T.R. Wheeler. 2005. Food crops in a changing climate. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 360, 1983-1989. South Khorasan Agriculture Organization, 2015. The estimated cultivated area, production and yield per hectare of crops. South Khorasan Agricultural Statistical Information System, 2014. Available at http://kj- agrijahad.ir/dbagri/baghebani.php. Tebaldi, C., Hayhoe, K., Arblaster, J., Meehl, G., 2006. Going to the extremes. Climatic Change 79, 185–211. Tubiello, F.N., Soussana, J.-F.O., Howden, S.M., 2007. Crop and pasture response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 19686–19690. Varshavian, V., 2014. Investigate changes in extreme values of minimum temperature, maximum and average daily number of environmental samples, Earth and Space Physics Journal, 37, 179. (In Persian).