Changes in cropping pattern and intensification based on virtual water with the saffron centrality (Case Study: Birjand plain)

Agricultural in economies of developing countries especially Iran has an effective role. For having sustainable sources in agriculture choose a suitable cropping patterns in which besides the maximize income condition for farmers has essential role in appropriate use of resources. Saffron is an Iranian valuable export products that is produced in arid and semi arid areas of south of Khorasan (about 95 percent) and is cultivated in some parts of country. The plenty economic value of saffron in global markets and jobs and appropriate income that grow this crop has followed, substantial economic returns has created for this product. This study with the purposes for development of saffron emphasizing in the value of virtual water was performed in Birjand. For this purpose initially amount of virtual water and its value using information such as water requirement, yield and crop price in two cases exports and imports for eight products cotton, jujube, saffron, wheat, tomatoes, melons, onions, and alfalfa were calculated and then optimal cultivation of each crop was estimated by using linear programming model Lingo. Two scenarios were also defined that in the first scenario, the area under crops was limited to 1.5 times for the existing level and this limitation was removed in the second scenario. Results of virtual water for two scenarios showed that saffron cultivation in Birjand were created high income equivalent to 4676.26 million Rials compared to other seven products, priority on cultivation. Under cultivation surface is obtained equivalent to 2010 ha for the first scenario and 12188.65 ha for the second scenario compared with existing area under cultivation (1340 ha) has significantly increased.