Document Type : Original Article
Author
Department of accounting, National University of Skills (NUS), Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Introduction: Saffron is one of the most valuable crops on the Earth and is from the lily family. This plant grows in the Mediterranean climate region and West Asia, in areas with very little rainfall that have cold winters and hot summers. Saffron is cultivated in other countries of the world in addition to Iran, and apart from Iran, the most important saffron producing countries are Spain, Italy, Greece, India, Morocco and Azerbaijan (Zabihi, Pishbin, 2018).
Reliance on oil exports is a special feature of the Iranian economy, and fluctuations in oil prices always cause instability in foreign exchange earnings and the Iranian economy. This has led to the emphasis of economic development programs on not depending on a single-product economy, diversifying foreign exchange earnings through increasing non-oil exports and increasing the share of the Iranian economy in international trade. Paying attention to non-oil exports and taking effective measures to improve them requires creating a competitive environment, and this in itself makes a wider presence in global markets, especially the World Trade Organization, inevitable. (Mohammadzadeh Asl, Mohammadi, 2012)
Inflation is known as a determining factor and affecting export prices. Inflation is a major economic problem in developing countries such as Iran. People are well aware of the negative impact of inflation on economic well-being and reducing their purchasing power. If the exchange rate shows severe fluctuations, the value of exported goods and the cost of imported goods in domestic currency are severely affected. Therefore, the more risk-averse the country's foreign trade factors are and the greater the share of foreign trade in GDP and exports, the greater the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on reducing domestic production, increasing prices, and limiting foreign trade. (Moghali, 2019)
Materials and Methods: The present study aims to investigate the economic factors affecting saffron exports from Iranian customs in terms of data collection method, descriptive (correlation branch) and applied in terms of purpose. The research was conducted in 2024 and the required information was collected through library resources of the last 5 years. The statistical population of the study includes saffron exports from all customs in Iran and the research hypotheses are as follows:
1- There is a significant relationship between inflation rate and saffron exports.
2- There is a significant relationship between exchange rate and saffron exports.
3- There is a significant relationship between GDP and saffron exports.
Results and Discussion: The data of the present study were analyzed with the help of SPSS version 22 software. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to determine the symmetry of the variables. The significance level obtained from this test was more than 5 percent in most variables, which showed that the data had a normal distribution. After examining the normality of the variables, the relationship between them was examined.
Considering the confirmation of the hypotheses and the beta coefficient obtained from the regression test, the initial conceptual model was completed and the relationship between the dependent and independent variables is presented in the form of a conceptual model as follows.
EX=15/480ER+ 14/289IN+ 0/781GDP
Considering the obtained beta coefficient and considering the confirmation of the hypotheses and the positivity of the coefficients, which indicates the alignment of the relationship, it can be said that a one percent change in the exchange rate leads to a 15 percent change in exports, a one percent change in inflation leads to a 14 percent change in exports, and a one percent change in GDP leads to less than a one percent change in exports. Therefore, among the factors discussed, inflation and currency have the greatest impact on saffron exports.
Conclusion: The present study, with the aim of determining the economic factors affecting saffron exports as a strategic currency-earning commodity in Iran, examined three factors affecting exports, including inflation, currency, and GDP, and concluded that all three factors have a positive effect on saffron exports. In fact, from the cultivation process to the production of saffron and the marketing and sale of this precious spice, all can lead to job creation. If Iranian producers work hard at all stages, unparalleled job opportunities will be provided, and this will have an impact on the gross domestic product, increasing per capita income, and the well-being of society.
Keywords