Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Expert of economic, social and extension, Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center of South Khorasan Province, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Birjand, Iran.
2 Reseracher of Forest and Pasture, Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center of South Khorasan Province, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Birjand, Iran.
3 Expert of Agricultural and horticultural, Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center of South Khorasan Province, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Birjand, Iran.
Abstract
Introduction: Iran, renowned for its rich history and cultural heritage, stands as a global leader in saffron production. This vibrant red spice, prized for its culinary and medicinal properties, plays a pivotal role in the country's economy, contributing significantly to non-oil exports and supporting rural livelihoods. Saffron cultivation is deeply intertwined with the socio-economic fabric of Iran, providing employment opportunities, ensuring food security, and contributing to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, the agricultural sector, including saffron production, faces mounting pressure from climate change, characterized by rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Understanding the intricate relationship between saffron performance and these climate variables is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies and ensuring the long-term sustainability of this vital crop. This study aims to investigate the long-term dynamics between saffron yield, producer prices, and key climatic factors, including rainfall, temperature, and wind speed, in Iran from 2010 to 2023.
Materials and Methods: The study employs time-series data from meteorological and agricultural databases. Variables include saffron yield (kg/ha), annual rainfall (mm), average temperature (°C), wind speed (m/s), and producer price (IRR). Unit root tests establish data stationarity, while co-integration tests confirm long-term relationships among variables. The VECM captures the short- and long-term effects of atmospheric factors on saffron yield. Analytical tools, including EViews 13 software, ensure the reliability of the results.
Results and Discussion: The empirical results reveal a complex interplay between saffron yield, producer prices, and climate variables. Rainfall emerges as a significant positive driver of saffron yield, with higher rainfall levels generally leading to increased production. This finding aligns with the physiological requirements of saffron, which necessitates adequate moisture for growth and development. Conversely, both average annual temperature and wind speed exert a negative influence on saffron yield. Rising temperatures, particularly during critical growth stages, can lead to heat stress, reducing plant vigor and flower production. Similarly, high wind speeds can cause physical damage to plants, such as flower breakage and pollination disruption, negatively impacting yield. The analysis also reveals a significant inverse relationship between producer prices and saffron yield. When saffron prices increase, farmers may be incentivized to shift their resources towards alternative crops with higher profit margins, resulting in a decline in saffron production. This economic behavior highlights the importance of stable and predictable market conditions for supporting saffron cultivation. The estimated VECM model demonstrates a high degree of statistical significance, with an R-squared value of 0.88, indicating that the model explains a substantial proportion of the variation in saffron yield. This finding underscores the robustness of the model and the importance of the identified factors in influencing saffron production.
The findings of this study have significant implications for saffron production in Iran and beyond. The positive impact of rainfall highlights the vulnerability of saffron cultivation to drought conditions and the importance of water management strategies, such as efficient irrigation and rainwater harvesting. Rising temperatures pose a significant challenge to saffron production, necessitating the development of heat-tolerant varieties and adaptation measures such as shade netting and improved irrigation techniques. Similarly, strategies to mitigate the negative effects of wind, such as windbreaks and sheltered cultivation practices, are crucial for enhancing productivity. The inverse relationship between producer prices and yield underscores the importance of stable and predictable market conditions for supporting saffron cultivation. Price stabilization measures, such as price support programs or futures markets, could help mitigate the risk of price fluctuations and encourage farmers to continue saffron production. These findings also highlight the need for a multi-pronged approach to address the challenges of climate change and economic pressures on saffron production.
Conclusion: The findings highlight the critical intersection of climate change and saffron production in Iran. To ensure sustainability, a multi-pronged approach is essential. Policymakers should promote adaptive measures, including introducing resilient saffron varieties, providing financial safeguards, and fostering collaboration between agricultural experts and meteorologists. These strategies will not only stabilize saffron yields but also secure the livelihoods of farmers amidst evolving climatic challenges.
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