Document Type : Original Article
Authors
Abstract
In order to study the effects of climate change on saffron water requirement by using four climate projection models such as atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM), an experiment was conducted. Precipitation and temperature variables were developed by applying monthly climate model output as within the CCCSN. We spot 1992-2014 and 2014-2040 as base and future period, respectively. For CCCSN, data from five global climate models (GCMs) from the CGCM3T47 archive were selected that cover three ‘Representative Concentration Pathways’ (RCPs) scenarios. Potential evapotranspiration is estimated by thornthwaite method. The accuracy of models at base period was determined by evaluation criteria, such as the RMSE, R2. Results showed that accuracy of CGCM3T47 model on A1B scenario was higher than other AOGCM models which used on base term. Also, it illustrated that water requirement will rise in all capable regions of state on 2040. In universal, average of addition of water requirement is 67 mm in through state. In capital of state, Birjand will have maximum variations by 95 mm ascension for the year 2040. Also, pole of production saffron in state, qaen will have 40 mm ascension in saffron water requirement. Mean water requirement of saffron will be incremental process. Meanwhile the index of 425.52 mm for the year of 2014 to 487.61 mm for the year of 2040 will arrive.
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