The Effect of Past Climate Change on the Water Footprint Trend in Saffron at Homogeneous Agroclimatic Regions of Khorasan

Gerkani Nezhad Moshizi, Zahra; Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin; Ramezani Etedali, Hadi; Esmaeilpour, Yahya; Collins, Brian

doi:10.22077/jsr.2022.5742.1199

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Department of Natural resources Engineering. Faculty of Agricultural science and Natural Resources. University of Hormozgan. Bandar Abbas. Iran

² 1- Department of Natural resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran

³ Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University

⁴ Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture Science and Natural Resources University of Hormozgan. Bandar Abbas. Iran

⁵ researcher, University of Queensland, Australia

https://doi.org/10.22077/jsr.2022.5742.1199

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change and global warming have increased the intensity of droughts and their continuation. This phenomenon causes improper distribution of precipitation and the available water sources. Temperature and precipitation change under climate change and the agricultural products is affected by these two factors. Iran is the largest producer and exporter of saffron in the world, so that about 90% of the production and cultivated area of saffron in the world belongs to Iran. Meanwhile, 96% of Iran's saffron is produced in Khorasan. Saffron is one of the most efficient agricultural products in terms of water consumption, and it is considered an under-expected plant in terms of the need for nutrients. The aim of this research is investigating the changes in the water footprint of saffron under the past climate changes during the 2006 to 2017 in Khorasan region.

Materials and Methods: In this study, Fuzzy Clustering Method (FCM) was used for clustering homogeneous agroclimatic regions of saffron production using precipitation data (p), minimum and maximum temperature (Tmax, Tmin), humidity, (RH%) count of sunny hours (SH) and wind speed (WS). Then the water footprint components, including green, blue and gray water footprints and the economic value of the water footprint components in the production of saffron during the 2006-2017 were estimated using Hoekstra and Chapagain concept. Finally, the trends of water footprint components and climatic factors were investigated using Man-Kendall trend analysis test and regression analysis.

Results and Discussion: Saffron production regions in Khorasan were divided into three homogenous agroclimatic regions with the help of FCM. Based on the results, the weighted average water footprint of saffron in Khorasan is 2833 M³/kg, respectively, the share of blue, green and 89.81, 18.11. The share of gray water footprint is very small and around 0.005%; The highest water footprint is related to Bejestan county (cluster 2) (4176.8 M³/kg) and the lowest water footprint is related to Beshrouye county (cluster 3) (1609.5 M³/kg). The average economic value of saffron is 0.61 $/M³, the highest and lowest of which belong to Beshrouye and Bejestan counties, respectively (1.03 and 0.40 $/M³). The results of the analysis of the saffron yield trend and water footprint showed that the saffron water footprint components during the studied period have a significant decreasing trend and the saffron yield also has an increasing trend during this period. The results of regression analysis showed that in all clusters, performance has a negative coefficient and a significant value. This means that more than anything, increasing the yield will reduce the water footprint. Also, the trend of climatic variables showed that temperature is increasing and humidity and precipitation are decreasing, but this trend is statistically no significance and weak.

Conclusion: The three provinces of North, Razavi and South Khorasan have the highest level of cultivation and production of saffron in Iran. Based on the results, the average annual production of saffron in three clusters is equal to 157.8 tons/year during the studied period. The highest yield of saffron is related to cluster 3 and Faruj county (4.3 kg/ha) and the lowest yield is related to cluster 1 and Bejestan county (2.5 kg/ha). The weighted average of the total water footprint of saffron is 2833 M³/kg, the largest share of water footprint is related to cluster 1 and Bejestan county (3884.8 M³/kg), which according to the results has the lowest yield, and the lowest share of water footprint is related to Cluster 2 and Torbat Heydarieh county (1331.1 M³/kg). According to the results, the highest and lowest economic value of the total water footprint of saffron in the study area is related to cluster 1 in Beshroieh (1.03 $/M³) and Bejestan (0.40 $/M³), respectively. The trend analysis of water footprint components showed that during the studied period, the water footprint components in all three clusters had a significant decreasing trend, and the yield of saffron also had an increasing trend. The trend of climatic variables confirms the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, therefore, climate change has occurred in the region, and according to the change of climatic variables and the impact of water footprint on climate change, it is possible to adapt this species to the change by changing the cultivation period or changing the genotype.

Keywords

References

Ahmadi, M., Etedali, H. R., & Elbeltagi, A. (2021). Evaluation of the effect of climate change on maize water footprint under RCPs scenarios in Qazvin plain, Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 254, 106969.

Aligholinia T, Rezaie H, Bahmanesh J, Montaseri M (2015). Sustainable management of water resources in order to maximize water extraction with a water footprint approach. Master's thesis, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University (In Persian)

Aligholinia, T., Sheibani, H., Mohammadi, O., & Hesam, M. (2019). Evaluation and comparison of blue, green and gray water footprint of wheat in different climates of Iran.

Allen, F., Qian, J., & Qian, M. (2005). Law, finance, and economic growth in China. Journal of financial economics, 77(1), 57-116.

Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998). FAO Irrigation and drainage paper No. 56. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 56 (97): e156.

Asadi Zarch, M. A. (2017). Analyzing climate change effects on drought occurrence in Yazd province, Iran. Desert Management, 5(9), 74-90. doi: 10.22034/jdmal.2017.27980.

Ayala, L. M., van Eupen, M., Zhang, G., Pérez-Soba, M., Martorano, L. G., Lisboa, L. S., & Beltrao, N. E. (2016). Impact of agricultural expansion on water footprint in the Amazon under climate change scenarios. Science of the Total Environment, 569, 1159-1173.

Babaee, M., Maroufpoor, S., Jalali, M., Zarei, M., & Elbeltagi, A. (2021). Artificial intelligence approach to estimating rice yield. Irrigation and Drainage, 70(4), 732-742.

Babazadeh, H., & Saraeetabrizi, M. (2013). Calibration of SWAP Model for Simulating Crop Yield, Biological Yield and Soybean Water Use Efficiency. Irrigation Sciences and Engineering, 35(4), 83-96.

Baghalian, K., Sheshtamand, M. S., & Jamshidi, A. H. (2010). Genetic variation and heritability of agro-morphological and phytochemical traits in Iranian saffron (Crocus sativus L.) populations. Industrial Crops and Products, 31(2), 401-406.

Bazrafshan, O., & Gerkani Nezhad Moshizi, Z. (2019). Assessment of Water Use Efficiency and Water Footprint of Saffron Production in Iran. Saffron agronomy and technology, 7(4), 505-519. doi: 10.22048/jsat.2019.141824.1311

Bazrafshan, O., & Moshizi, Z. G. N. (2018). The impacts of climate variability on spatiotemporal water footprint of tomato production in the Hormozgan. Journal of Water and Soil, 32(1).

Bazrafshan, O., Etedali, H. R., Moshizi, Z. G. N., & Shamili, M. (2019a). Virtual water trade and water footprint accounting of Saffron production in Iran. Agricultural water management, 213, 368-374.

Bazrafshan, O., Zamani, H., Etedali, H. R., & Dehghanpir, S. (2019b). Assessment of citrus water footprint components and impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on them. Scientia Horticulturae, 250, 344-351.

Chapagain, A. K., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2008). The global component of freshwater demand and supply: an assessment of virtual water flows between nations as a result of trade in agricultural and industrial products. Water international, 33(1), 19-32.

Chapagain, A. K., Hoekstra, A. Y., & Savenije, H. H. (2006). Water saving through international trade of agricultural products. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 10(3), 455-468.

Chico D, Aldaya M, Garrido A (2013). A water footprint assessment of a pair of jeans: the influence of agricultural policies on the sustainability of consumer products. Journal of Cleaner Production 57:238-248

Chukalla, A. D., Krol, M. S., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2015). Green and blue water footprint reduction in irrigated agriculture: effect of irrigation techniques, irrigation strategies and mulching. Hydrology and earth system sciences, 19(12), 4877-4891.

Ellis, E. C., & Ramankutty, N. (2008). Putting people in the map: anthropogenic biomes of the world. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 6(8), 439-447.

Farajnia, A., Moravej, K. (2020). Agro climatic Zoning of Saffron Culture in East Azarbayjan Province. Journal of Saffron Research, 7(2), 251-267. doi: 10.22077/jsr.2018.1445.1057

Feizi, H., Moradi, R. (2020). Assessing involved Managing Factors in Gap Yield between Traditional and Ideal Saffron Cultivating Systems in Razavi and South Khorasan Provinces. Journal of Saffron Research, 7(2), 283-298. doi: 10.22077/jsr.2019.2242.1089

Fulton, J., Norton, M., & Shilling, F. (2019). Water-indexed benefits and impacts of California almonds. Ecological indicators, 96, 711-717.

Gohari, A. R., Saeidnia, S., & Mahmoodabadi, M. K. (2013). An overview on saffron, phytochemicals, and medicinal properties. Pharmacognosy reviews, 7(13), 61.

Hoekstra AY, Chapagain AK (2007). Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern. Journal of Water Resources Management 21(1):35-48

Hoekstra, A. Y., Chapagain, A. K., Aldaya, M. M., & Mekonnen, M. M. (2011). The water footprint assessment manual: Setting the global standard. Routledge.

Hoekstra, A. Y., Mekonnen, M. M., Chapagain, A. K., Mathews, R. E., & Richter, B. D. (2012). Global monthly water scarcity: blue water footprints versus blue water availability. PloS one, 7(2), e32688.

IRIMO, 2017. Iran Meteorological Bulletin. Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization Press, Tehran. [In Persia].

Khanali, M., Shahvarooghi Farahani, S., Shojaei, H., & Elhami, B. (2017). Life cycle environmental impacts of saffron production in Iran. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24(5), 4812-4821.

Madani, K. (2014). Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?. Journal of environmental studies and sciences, 4(4), 315-328.

Maleki, F., Kazemi, H., Siahmargue, A., Kamkar, B. (2019). Investigation of climatic factors of Azadshahr township (Golestan province) in order to development of saffron cropping. Journal of Saffron Research, 7(1), 123-143. doi: 10.22077/jsr.2018.1420.1056

Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2011). The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(5), 1577-1600.

Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2016). Four billion people facing severe water scarcity. Science advances, 2(2), e1500323.

Ministry of Agriculture- Jihad (MAJ), 2021.

Nazeri Tahrudi, M., Ahmadi, F., & Khalili, K. (2017). Evaluation the Trend and Trend Chang Point of Urmia Lake Basin Precipitation. Water and Soil, 31(2), 644-659. doi: 10.22067/jsw.v31i2.55338

Rahimipour Anaraki M R, Mohammadi A, Rafieian M, Arjmandi R, Karimi S. (2020). Evaluation of Virtual Water and Water Footprint of Crop Production (Case study: Qaleganj County). Arid Regions Geographic Studies, 11 (41) :77-92

Rasooli Majd N, Montaseri M, Bahmanesh J, Rezaei H (2015) Identification and evaluation of the water footprint index, broken down by water, green water and gray water, by applying climate change. Master's Thesis, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University (In Persian)

Reddy, K. S., Maruthi, V., Pankaj, P. K., Kumar, M., Prabhakar, M., Reddy, A. G. K., ... & Koradia, A. K. (2022). Water Footprint Assessment of Rainfed Crops with Critical Irrigation under Different Climate Change Scenarios in SAT Regions. Water, 14(8), 1206.

Rokni, K., Ahmad, A., Selamat, A., & Hazini, S. (2014). Water feature extraction and change detection using multitemporal Landsat imagery. Remote sensing, 6(5), 4173-4189.

Ruspini, E. H. (1969). A new approach to clustering. Information and control, 15(1), 22-32.

Safdari, M., Hekmatnia, H., & Khajedad Miri, E. (2022). Water Use Efficiency of Wheat from the Perspective of Water Footprint (Case Study: Sistan and Baluchestan Province). Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, 15(6), 1469-1480.

Sepaskhah, A. R., & Kamgar, H. A. (2009). Saffron irrigation regime.

Shirzadi Laskookalayeh, S., Sabuhi Sabuni, M., Keikha, A. A., & Davari, K. (2017). Irrigation management of saffron by using the price and quantity policies of water (case study: Naishabur basin). Saffron agronomy and technology, 5(2), 149-160.

Sidhu, B. S., Sharda, R., & Singh, S. (2021). Water footprint of crop production: A review. Indian J. Ecol, 48(2), 358-366.

Talel, B., Marouen, H., & Fayçal, B. H. (2015, December). Unbiased minimum variance state and fault estimation for nonlinear stochastic systems with unknown disturbances. In 2015 16th International Conference on Sciences and Techniques of Automatic Control and Computer Engineering (STA) (pp. 291-295). IEEE.

Wang, X. Y. (2010). Irrigation water use efficiency of farmers and its determinants: Evidence from a survey in northwestern China. Agricultural Sciences in China, 9(9), 1326-1337.