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Modelling climate change impacts on spatial distribution of Saffron Cultivation for future A case study: South Khorasan

Document Type : Original Article

Abstract

Climate change have direct and indirect consequences on water resources, agriculture and human environments. The effect of these changes will intensify in the coming decades. South Khorasan province has more sensitive to climate change. South Khorasan province affected by the consequences of climate change and its effects in many places due to the occurrence and persistence of droughts have been observed. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sectors that most rural livelihood is agriculture, including the cultivation of saffron. Knowledge of the future status of such variables influencing the temperature is very important for future planning. The aim of this study is explores the changes in temperature until 2100 in South Khorasan Province deals. The main purpose of the identification of the main focuses of temperature change and displacement that followed in the cultivation of saffron. The method of this study was to evaluate changes in temperature in greenhouse gases and using the hybrid model MAGICC-SENEN and using general circulation models of the atmosphere HADCM3 and ECHO-G under 18, including climate change scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for the next decade to 2100 was conducted. The period 2000-1961 as the previous period and the period 2100-2016 were selected as future periods. The results show that in all the province for decades to come will be an increasing trend of temperature changes, the temperature increase is more since 2025. In some areas of the province, including the southern and central parts, temperature increase, will be higher than the northern areas.

Keywords

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